Basics of Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading

Fundamental analysis takes into account economic, social and political variables that affect supply and demand of assets. Basically, supply and demand affect price and like everywhere else in the world, this counts also for the Forex. Based on various factors we can get an idea of how the country thrives. If the economy a particular country is doing well, its currency strengthens. Investors will want to invest in the country which means that they will have to buy a given menu. This means that if the economy is good, currency value rises. If it is bad, so the value of currency decreases.

What is Fundamental analysis
In general fundamental analysis tries to predict how the economic, social and political variables affect exchange rate movements (stocks, commodities or currencies). Default forecasting procedure consists from three steps:

  • Global Analysis – examines the overall economic situation
  • Field Analysis – examines trends in the development of the field
  • Analysis of specific entities – examines the value of stocks, commodities or value of the currency

We can divide the basic needs for fundamental analysis on Forex market into two steps:

  • Global Analysis – analysis forecasting development of currency markets in total
  • Analysis of specific entities – specifically at Forex market follows the development of a currency pair

But because of the Forex market being an internationally interlinked market, almost without borders and limitations, these two steps often blend together creating one big fundamental analysis of the global Forex market.

Fundamental analysis is a way to look at the market through the economic, social and political aspects that influence supply and demand of assets. In other words we are looking for an economy that is doing as well and regularly as its currency is doing. The better the country’s economy is doing, the more the neighboring countries believe in its currency. Marketers use the information based on the reviews posted on financial magazines, websites or published in professional journals and financial newspapers periodically weekly or monthly, in addition to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and ECI (Employment Cost Index), which are issued quarterly.

The most important information sources include financial newspaper such as Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Week magazine, for example: as well as websites such as Reuters or Bloomberg, being these two the most prominent.

There are loads of fundamentals and other factors that cause changes in the rates of currency pairs; and fundamental analysis is extremely important for the trader. Even a trader who trades only on the basis of technical analysis must take into account the announced reports.

Politics moves with Forex
All the changes in the movements of currency pairs are directly tied to changes in government, military, economic or financial policy of superpowers. Political crises are usually very dangerous and mostly unpredictable for the markets. Contrary to anticipated political events (elections, conclusions of interstate agreements, etc.), which generally take place at the exactly specified time and provide the market with opportunities coming from these changes, political crises come all of a sudden. It is important to know that in cases such as political crises, the spread can expand from 5 to 100 pips. Then you need to act quickly and with a cool head to avoid large losses.

If you are considering and deciding to trade according to fundamental news, be aware that markets do not always react as they are expected to. Nervousness and speculation about possible developments even before the important messages are announced, often excite false signals to enter the trade. Therefore, it is important and necessary to carefully test the method of inputs and outputs, preferably on some demo platform with actual and real data.

There are a lot of factors that can cause a nation’s currency to fluctuate. The key concept is that the movement of currencies is based on supply and demand, which is influenced by both economic factors and confidence factors.

Basic indicators of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis aims to determine a currency’s value by assessing the relative strength and weakness of a country’s economy compared to those of its trading partners. GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and political stability and other factors are all taken into account.

Interest Rates
Growth in interest rates causes an increase of nominal value of bonds and interest rate bonds. Interest rates are charged by various financial institutions. For example, the Prime Rate is an interest rate charged by banks to reputable customers and the Federal Funds Rate is an inter-bank rate for borrowing reserves to meet margin requirements. If there is an uncertainty in the market in terms of interest rates, any developments regarding interest rates could have a direct affect on the currency markets. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country’s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. The timing at which the interest rate moves is usually known in advance. Interest rates are announced by central banks of individual countries, and the most important are:

  • Bank of England
  • United States Federal Reserve
  • European Central Bank
  • Swiss National Bank
  • Bank of Japan
  • Reserve Bank of Australia
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Economic Indicators

  • GNP (Gross National Product) – GNP refers to the sum of all goods and services created by citizens of specific country.
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) – GDP indicates the value of all products and services produced in the country regardless of who owns the assets, or what nationality is the labor used to produce such products and services. The Gross Domestic Product is then the sum of all goods and services produced by both domestic and foreign companies in the economy in a year. GDP is a good indicator for the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or shrinking as it measures the country’s economic output and growth.
  • Consumer spending
  • Investment spending
  • Government Spending

Indicators of Industrial Sector

  • Industrial Production – Industrial Production is the quarterly measure of the change in the amount of goods and services produced per unit of input. It incorporates labor and capital inputs.
  • Capacity Utilization
  • Factory Orders
  • Durable Goods Orders – Durable Goods Orders measure the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of hard goods.
  • Business inventories – Business inventories and sales figures consist of data from other reports such as durable goods orders, factory orders, retail sales, and wholesale inventories and sales data. Inventories are an important component of the GDP report because they help distinguish which part of the total output produced (GOP) remains unsold.

Indicators of Construction Sector

  • Planning permissions
  • Registrations, a proxy for housing starts
  • Dwellings completed
  • Investment in construction industry

Indicators of Construction Sector

    • Fiscal Policy – is the part of a national economic policy that affects the economy changes related to the amount and structure of public spending and taxes.
    • Monetary Policy – is the part of a national economic policy implemented by the central bank’s monetary instruments.
    • Inflation – refers to the increase in prices (price level)and wages over time that decrease purchasing power. It is calculated from changes in the price index, usually a consumer price index, or a GDP deflator.
    • PPI (Producer price index) – The PPI measures the average changes in selling price as indicated by domestic producers for their output in various industries. The Forex market tends to focus on the PPI for seasonally adjusted finished goods on a monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual basis. PPI is an accurate precursor of the important Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure.
    • CPI (Consumer Price Index) – The CPI is a primary indicator of inflation that measures the average price for goods and services most commonly used by a typical household. By definition, it is a measure of the average price level paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It reports price changes in over 200 categories. Items included in the CPI reflect prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuel, transportation, health care and all other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
    • GNP deflator – current and constant proportion of GNP
    • GDP deflator – current and constant share of GDP
    • Commodity Research Bureau’s (CRB)
  • Merchandise Trade Balance – balance of trade in goods

Indicators of Construction Sector

  • Report of the Employment Status – generally the most important indicator.
  • ECI (Employment Cost Index ) – the index of wage costs.
  • Retail Sales
  • Vehicle Motor Sales – the index of sales of motor vehicles
  • Personal income

Main Indicators

  • Average workweek of production workers
  • Average weekly claims for state unemployment
  • New orders of consumer goods and materials
  • Performance sellers
  • Contracts and orders for factories and equipment
  • New building permits issued
  • Change of the orders in the backlog of manufacturers
  • Change in the prices of materials

Fundamental analysis is a very effective and efficient method to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact at forecasting market price movements. It important to study the fundamentals and see how they best fit your trading style before casting yourself into a particular mold regarding any aspect of market analysis. Furthermore, it is vital to stay current with public announcements and news that can suddenly move an exchange rate hundreds of pips in a matter of minutes.

Read more about Forex Brokers, Day-trading and Forex Market [http://www.wheretoforex.com].

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Trade the News in 2018

If you have been trading the Forex for sometime now, you will realize that price action fluctuates the most usually before and after an economic data release from the world’s major economy such as America, European Union, or Japan. Other times when price action swings in a volatile fashion is during times of political unrest such as the recent Egypt Riot, Greece Fiscal Crisis, or natural disasters as in the case of Japan’s recent massive Tsunami and earthquake off the Northeastern Coast of Sendai.

Whatever the case, staying up to date with current events and being able to interpret them as it relates to the currency market is an important skill that every trader has to develop in order to make sound trading decisions. Because news has such a huge impact to the currency market, sometimes causing pairs to move 60-100 pips in matters of 30 minutes-an hour. Subscribing to a Forex news signal provider can greatly enhance your ability to catch the BIG pips during these massive buy/sell rallies.

Forex News Signal Trading: Where to find them?

If you go to major Forex news services or large popular Forex brokerage, you can usually find a place to subscribe for a Forex news signal trading services for a monthly fee of anywhere $50 and upward. This is beneficial for you as a trader because this allows you to trade along side with a panel of expert analyst as they themselves trade the same recommendation as you and they are working for their company.

How to Trade News Anywhere in the World!

To trade the news, you should go to sites such as Forex factory or any other site that shows the daily, weekly, and monthly economic calender.

The first things you should note for is configuring the time zone to match the time zone you are living in to make sure you are not a few hours behind or few hours ahead when the news get release.

Second thing you should do is pay close attention to the particular countries you are trading your currencies with. In most cases, anything related to America is important because most of the major currencies are pegged to the American dollar as they are the world’s reserve currency therefore whatever the Americans do will have an effect on most currencies on the board.

In recent times, the Chinese economy, now the second largest in the world, surpassing Japan is also becoming very influential in the currency market particularly to commodity resource-based pair such as the Australian dollar or the New Zealand dollar (traders like to call it the kiwi!) Why? because the Chinese are busy buying up the entire world’s resource/commodity in order to fuel their ever growing economy.

When to Trade the News?

There are two key times that trader should be on their screen when an economic news is release. The first is a few hours usually 3-4 hours before the news. Rumour abounds during these times and trader will begin to take sides on a particular currency driving up the prices and creating massive build-up right to the very hour when the news release. After the news get release, two things usually happen.

1) If the news is not what trader has expected, there will be massive sell-off and reversal pattern which completely counters the previous 3-4 hours build up of that trend. These reversal pattern usually last an hour and the currency is back to where it had left off in the previous 3-4 hours before the news started.

2) If the “actual” forecast is in according to the “predicted” forecast, you will usually not see much action as before but rather you will see a consolidation or leveling of the trend on the chart. Sometimes you have to be extremely careful because there is what’s call a”fake sell off.” Basically what happen is the big banks and hedge funds will try to trick theindividual traders by producing a fake reversal pattern only to see a sudden rebound minutes later as the actual trade direction reveals itself.

Yes, welcome to the real world. It’s a dark world out there and this is why the big shark will always swallow up the small fishes.

How you can protect yourself against the big sharks?

By subscribing to a reliable Forex news signal providers, you can follow exactly how professional traders trade the Forex as they are already very familiar with the little tricks that the big sharks try to pull and you will be following the tails of the big sharks instead of going directly into the big sharks’ mouth!!

Nick is a 22 year old Chinese Canadian trader from Hong Kong and he has made a list of the most reliable Forex news trading signal indicators online today that people can use to enhance their trading decisions and profitability.

Grab your FREE recommendation list of Forex Trading Signal Indicators [http://myforexonlinetraining.com/forex-trading-signals] and jump start your FOREX career today!!

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8 Simple Steps to Scalp the Forex Market in 2018

A pure Forex scalper exits a position quickly if the market doesn’t go his way. He will make a number of trades a day, between 10 to a couple hundreds, and he doesn’t hold on to a losing position hoping or praying that it will turn around!

The main aim of the Forex scalper is to buy (or sell) a particular pair of currency at the bid (or ask) price and then quickly sell them a few pips higher (or lower) for a profit. When the Forex scalper uses this strategy, small profits can be easily compound into large gains if a strict exit strategy is used to prevent accumulating large losses.

Most Forex scalper mostly makes use of 1 min, 5 mins or hourly charts to scalp for small profits in the Forex market. Most of the good Forex scalper will choose a brokerage house that provides a reliable platform with instant execution of orders, which is highly crucial to his profits.

I was fortunate enough to know and work with some of the best day traders that scalps for a living. They have shared with me some of the main ingredients, which they use to scalp the market.
In this post, I am going to summarize the scalping strategy which i have incubated, into 8 simple steps;

1st Step

Go to http://www.forexfactory.com to check important data release time

2nd Step

Record the previous day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close)
for all the 4 major currency in your diary.

3rd Step

Identify candlestick studies(i will reveal more next time) on the daily charts

4th Step

Identify major trendlines, support and resistance on the daily charts

5th Step

Determine the market sentiments (Bullish or Bearish?) for the day.

6th Step

Go to hourly charts and determine the support and resistance

7th Step

Lookout for candlestick (We will talk more about it in our next article) formations on hourly basis.

* For reversal candlestick signal;
– Wait for better signal or staggered your lots
– Enter only near support or resistance level

8th Step

Adjust your risk to entry level when you are 10pips in the money.

* Scalping Risk Reward Ratio
Risk : 10pips
Target Profits : 20pips

I hope you have benefited from my summary above, on the steps to scalp the Forex market. In my next article, I will be focusing more on the Japanese Candlestick Studies.

Hi

Let me give you some history about myself.. I am a 33 year old Singaporean(as of 2009). Who started my trading journey since 2004. Now, I focus mainly in Stock Options, Forex and other Investments. I have started Online Trading FX – a site about trading psychology, Forex trading, investments and other topics that interests me from time to time. I hope to educate and contribute my humble experience and thoughts to everyone out there.

Do find out more in [http://www.onlinetradingfx.com]

Best Regards

Sebastian

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Are Renko Charts a Better Way to Trade Forex?

Renko charts hold their own forte when it comes to traders using these custom chart types. Although the more popular candlestick or bar charts are still widely preferred, traders who trade the markets with Renko bricks tend to be more comfortable trading this chart type than switching to other forms. A quick look at some of the popular trading forums and one can see the increasing number of traders coming up with new Renko trading strategies.

What exactly is a Renko chart you might be wondering?

Well, for starters it is not a holy grail chart that will show you things that others don’t see. Renko charts are merely a graphical way of displaying price on the charts, in the form of bricks.

If you haven’t come across a Renko chart before, the first time you look at these charts can be visually captivating. If you have been around in the markets for a while, you might actually find some similarity between Renko and Heikin Ashi charts, at least as far as trends are concerned. But that’s where the difference ends. Renko bricks are unique because the charts are built using price, unlike other charts including Heikin Ashi where time is a factor. This unique feature makes the Renko bricks purely showing price and thus in a way trends as well. What captivates most traders about Renko charts is the fact that due to the lack of noise in the price bricks, it is a lot easier to trade. We all know the popular usage of the trend being your friend.

Renko boxes are widely used, not just in the Forex markets but also in stocks and futures as well. For a technical analyst who prefers to trade with price action, there is nothing better than this. From chart patterns to support and resistance levels, you can quite see everything that price is doing.

It is perhaps due to this feature that Renko charts are often used by traders, who rather unfortunately expect to see their trading turn around. But that is not always the case. If you are trading without understanding the concepts of the market dynamics, then no chart, existing or future inventions will be able to help you make profits with trading.

But why use a Renko chart type where there are tons of other regular conventional and un-conventional charts to use from?

As mentioned, it is purely a question of preference. For the astute technical analysis, Renko charts can offer a lot more information compared to a Heikin Ashi or a candlestick chart. This chart type can also be beneficial if you are not worried about time but focused on what price is doing. And yes, due to the nature of these charts, there is some key market information that can be easily seen, but could be missed when using one of the many conventional chart types.

Reasons why you could use Renko charts

Here are some of the main benefits of using Renko charts.

Price indecision: In traditional chart types, price indecision usually refers to prices ranging back and forth. While this is also evident on Renko charts where you can see these ranging price patterns with consecutive bricks being plotted up and down and prices heading nowhere, there is an edge however.

The advantage is that these consolidation or indecision zones are easier to spot. And if you are good at your technical analysis, you can look at past price action and figure out why the market is behaving the way it is.

Pull backs in a trend: There are tons of articles that talk about how to trade pull backs but the truth is that in real-time it can be hard to trade unless you know and are confident in your trading approach. With Renko, the pull backs in the trend are a lot easier to spot and don’t require much of subjectivity.

More trading opportunities: Whether you want to scalp the markets or whether you are in for the longer term, Renko charts can show you different ways to trade. From taking profits for every 10 ticks to riding the trends, or even counter trend trading, the charts make it all the more easier. It all depends on how big your Renko brick size is.

In conclusion, if you are looking for an alternative way to trade the markets, not just in hopes of finding the next holy grail, then renko charts might be worth your time, as long as you have an open-mind and willing to explore the possibilities.

http://renkotraders.com is the first and unique website dedicated to imparting knowledge and techniques of trading with Renko, Median Renko charts. The information provided is free of cost with practical trading examples and tons of renko trading strategies that are tried and tested.

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What Is The Best Time To Trade Forex?

Many people know that the most important question you need to ask yourself when you are going to trade Forex is what is the best time to trade Forex? The answer is all to do with stats. If there is a trend then follow the trend and listen to the advice of the experts. If you are waiting for something to increase then you are in the wrong mindset. You need to find the best movers and trade. In terms of what’s the best time to trade in the week there are many different opinions but the majority of people and experts say the best time is mid week, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This is because the majority of currency pairs reach their highest in the middle of the week.

But an important point to remember is that don’t just trade because someone tells you to, or it looks good because it is a Wednesday, you have to do your own research and look at the stats of the Forex before even thinking about trading. Another interesting point is trade when many big markets are open, not just one. At certain times the American market and the UK market will be open at the same time; this is always a good time to trade. Remember trades online take seconds most are done in under 1 second, so once you have made your decision there is no going back. The UK and US markets account for over half of the total world’s market which means that Forex trading is particularly busy during this time.

Don’t be put off to much by the time to trade. The most important thing to remember is that you should only trade if you feel confident that you will make money on the trade, and get high R.O.I. whether they are high risk or whether they are going to get you high r.o.I. even if they are low risk. You do not need to be overly concerned with the best time to trade Forex, just remember once you have traded there is no going back and sometimes you might make a wrong decision and lose your investment. Another quick point, Forex is investment not gambling so do not invest and hope that a currency will increase/decrease. Use your brain, go with the trend.

In conclusion before investing Forex you need to know the best time to trade, the best times to trade are when multiply markets are open, it is mid week and you feel confident about the stats and where the trend is going. Only then should you invest, you should also understand that if you leave your investment for longer you are more likely to either lose or make a lot more money and get a higher r.o.I.

Building a profitable forex trading strategy can be boiled down to two key factors – knowledge and testing. Visit TomorrowInTrading.com to benefit from expert reviews and gain advice on forex trading systems and forex signals.

We have tested hundreds of trading systems and isolated the 7 simple factors that distinguish the 1% of wealthy and highly accomplished forex traders from the 99% who keep failing. To discover the 7 core secrets of forex success and profit enrol on the “Forex Cash Fast” free course here.

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Forex Options Trading – Forex Money Management: How to Turn $1,000 to $12,000?

Forex trading is definitely risky. Not all who participate in Forex trading ends up with profits. With fixed ratio money management, you will profit more rather than losing money. It will help you to maximizes your money and limits your looses. It is a defensive strategy in Forex trading. Let me show you how you can turn your $1,000 to $12,000 safely in Forex trading. Follow these steps and start cashing in your profits.

Step 1: Open a Forex trading account of $1000 for every lot.

Step 2: Determine how many pips you want to gain before you increase your investment in a lot. The minimum pip to start increasing investment varies from people to people. Start with a number of pips that you are comfortable with. Let’ say you decided that 200 pips is enough to start adding to your investment. You’ll need an average of only 10 pips for a day for 20 trading days.

Step 3: Increase you’re the percentage of your lot if you achieve your minimum profits. If you haven’t reached your minimum pip, continue trading with the number of pips within your capacity. The increase of on the percentage of your lot should be in the increments of 10% percent per achieved profits.

Sample :

First 200 pips – $1,000 + (200 pips x 0.1 lot) = $1,200 as your new lot

Second 200 pips — $1,200 + (200 pips x 0.2 lot) = $1, 600 as your new lot

Third 200 pips — $1600 + (200 pips x .3 lots = $600) = $2200 as your new lot

Fourth 200 pips — $2200 + (200 pips x .4 lots = $800) = $3000 as your new lot

Fifth 200 pips – $3000 + (200 pips x .5 lots = $1000) = $4000 as your new lot

Sixth 200 pips — $4000 + (200 pips x .6 lots = $1200) = $5200 as your new lot

Seventh 200 pips — $5200 + (200 pips x .7 lots = $1400) = $6600 as your new lot

Eight 200 pips — $6600 + (200 pips x .8 lots = $1600) = $8200 as your new lot

Ninth 200 pips – $8200 + (200 pips x .9 lots = $1800) = $10000 as your new lot

Tenth 200 pips – $10,000 + (200 pips x 1 lot = $2000) = $12000

Timothy Stevens is a Forex Options Trader who owns [http://www.NonDirectionTrading.com] – He has helped hundreds of people on Trading Forex with Options.

He has recently developed a free e-course showing you a step by step process for starting your Forex Trading easier. To learn how to start Forex Trading with Options without wasting your time and losing more money, visit [http://www.NonDirectionTrading.com/members/FreeReport.htm]

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