How to use Bollinger bands to make you profits

January 30, 2018

The Bollinger band is one of the oldest and best indicators to apply in 2018

Any kind of proven good Forex indicators requires to include several forms of volatility channel. A Bollinger band uses the theory that if the purchase price moves beyond a moving average plus extra amount, a trend may have started. After 30 years in use, the Bollinger band is still one of the best indicators for Forex.

The Bollinger band indicator uses two guidelines, the first one is the number of days for the moving average and the second one is the number of standard deviations that you would like the band to deviate from the moving average. The most frequent values are 2 or 2.5 standard deviations.
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In statistics, the typical deviation is a way of measuring how to spread aside from the values of a data set in place are. In finance and in forex, the standard deviation functions as a means of gauging volatility.

What is actually the bottom line?

A Bollinger band indicator will adjust to forex market volatility. It widens as volatility rises and narrows as volatility reduces. A long-period trend-following system using Bollinger band indicator might use two standard deviations and a 350-day moving average. You can start an extended position if the prior day’s close is above the channel peak, and have a short if the prior day’s close is lower than the bottom of Bollinger band. The exit point would be when the prior day’s close crosses back again through the moving average.
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Learning how to use this hedge grid system will make you money

January 29, 2018

This no stop, hedged grid trading system uses the principle that one should be able to cash in at a gain no matter which way the market moves. The only way this is logically possible is that one would have a buy and a sell transaction active at the same time. Most traders will say that doing this is trading suicide but let’s investigate this in more detail.

Let’s say that a trader enters the market with a buy (buy 1) and sell (sell 1) active when a currency is at a level of say 1.0100. The price then moves to level 1.0200. The buy will then be positive by 100 pips. The sell will be negative by 100 pips. At this point we would cash in our positive deal and bank 100 pips. The sell is now however carrying a loss of -100 pips. The grid system requires one to make sure that the trader can cash in on any movement in the market. To do this one would again enter into a buy (buy 2) and a sell (sell 2) transaction at this level (level 1.0200).

Now, let’s assume that the price moves back to level 1.0100 (the starting point).

The second sell (sell 2) has now gone positive by 100 pips and the second buy (buy 2) is carrying a loss of -100 pips. According to the rules you would cash the sell (sell 2) in and another 100 pips will be added to your account. That brings the total cashed in at this point to 200 pips (buy 1 and sell 2). Now the first sell that remained active has moved from level 1.0200 where it was -100 to level 1.0100 where it is now breaking even.

The 4 transactions added together now magically show a gain:- 1st buy (buy 1) cashed in +100, 2nd sell (sell 2) cashed in +100, 1st sell (sell 1) now breaking even and the 2nd buy (buy 2) is -100. This gives an overall a gain of 100 pips in total. We can liquidate all the transactions and have some champagne as we have made a gain of 100 pips.

Please make sure you understand the mathematics behind the movements discussed above. You may have to reread and draw the movements on a piece of paper to make sure you understand the concept.

This formation is the 100% retracement formation where the price moves up to a grid level and then returns back to the starting grid level and results in a nice gain for the forex trader. There are many other market movements that turn this strange “buy and sell at the same time” activity into gains.

If you have missed any of the previous articles on no stop, hedged, forex trading using the grid system please contact the authors Mary McArthur at expert4x com For a free course showing you how to double your trading account in 3 trades go to forextrading-alerts com We look forward to any feedback, questions or comments on this article.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/expert/Mary_McArthur/199461

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Do you know how to use candlesticks to make profits?

January 26, 2018

This candlestick pattern can make you very profitable trades.

Engulfing Candlesticks

The engulfing candlestick pattern is one of the most dependable patterns. There are two types: “Bullish Engulfing” and Bearish Engulfing”. Both of these are reversal patterns and are considered to be some of the most profitable candlestick patterns to trade. When the candle body engulfs the previous candles body, this is called an “engulfing” pattern. Bullish engulfing patterns are found at price bottoms and bearish engulfing patterns are found at price tops.

In my experience, the 30 minute charts are the best ones to use when trading candlestick patterns. You must always wait for the candles to complete to make sure the candlestick pattern is achieved. Do not guess where the candle will close and try to get into a trade early.
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How to Trade Engulfing Candles

To trade engulfing candle stick patterns, we’re looking for an end of an uptrend or downtrend. This does not have to be a strong trend but it does need to have some momentum that appears to be coming to an end. A good indication of a trend coming to an end is when the bodies of the candles are getting smaller in size. That means the momentum may be running out and this is when you should be looking for a reversal in price action. This could also be the beginning of a consolidation period, so we need to be aware of that.

In an uptrend, we look for an “up” candle immediately followed by a “down” candle, where the body of the “down” candle engulfs the previous “up”‘ candle. This is the setup we want to see so we take the short trade immediately following the close of this candlestick. Next, we count how many pips away the top of the highest last 2 candles are, including the wick, and add 5 pips. This is our Stop Loss. Our Take Profit target should be set to twice this value. For example, if our stop loss is 40 pips away, then our take profit should be at least 80 pips. Money management/risk to reward ratio, are key in this business. A long trade would be similar to a short trade except we’re looking for a downtrend reversal to get into a trade.
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Conclusion

You can search around the web for forex candlestick patterns and learn all you need to know about them, but remember there are so many of them, you need to just focus on a few. As I mentioned, the engulfing patterns are some of the best ones to trade so if you stick with those, you’ll do very well.

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About the author

Andrew Daigle is the owner and creator of many successful websites including ForexBoost, a free Forex educational site for learning Forex trading strategies and partners with Forex Confidential for live trading sessions and very profitable forex trading signals service.
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How to master the MACD to more successful trades

January 11, 2018

In technical analysis, MACD is used to generate signals as well as to confirm a trend.

One of the most used settings for MACD is 12 for EMA1 (fast moving average), 26 for EMA2 (slow moving average) and 9 for signal line. The signal line is used to smooth MACD and generate signals on its crossovers with MACD. Still this setting is not always fit to trading needs of all traders; therefore, the setting could vary depending on a trader’s personal trading style. The difference between the MACD and signal line forms the Histogram.

There are three basic ways of using this indicator.
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1. Look for MACD crossovers with zero line

Positive MACD confirms an up-trend and negative MACD confirms down-trend. Thus, when this indicator drops below zero line it could be considered as a signal to sell short and when it raises above zero line it could be considered as a signal to buy long.

2. Trade MACD and Signal Line crossovers

This is the same as to look for MACD Histogram and zero line crossovers. The technical analysis says that when MACD crosses signal line on its way down it signals selling and when it crosses signal line on its way up it signals buying.

3. Define moments of divergence between price and MACD

In particular, a buy signal could be generated when price makes new low, yet MACD stays above its previous lowest point. Controversially, a sell signal could be generated when price makes new high, yet MACD stays below its previously hit high level.
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Despite the fact that MACD is one of the oldest studies in technical analysis, as many other studies it generates fake signals. Furthermore, it is recommended to use it in junction with other indicators. Since MACD is price based indicator it could be a good choice to use volume based indicators to complete a trading system that uses MACD analysis.

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About the author

Find out more about Viktor Ka technical analysis of different indicators applied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJI to create trading systems for stocks and options trading.
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Killer stop-loss alternative that will make you a better trader

Binary options are a more lucrative strategy than stop-losses. Assuming that stop-losses are placed below the breakout point, stop-losses will end loosing you money when they are hit. Binary options trading can ideally be used as a tool to hedge forex trading and minimize your losses.

Utilizing a binary option hedge strategy, which is nothing but placing a position to win in the opposite direction of the trade, investors are in a better position to protect their losses through hedging than with stop-loss. The reason being is that because if the trade fails then the options hedge wins, thus fully hedging the position thus resulting in zero losses even during failed trades. Investors can utilize this hedging strategy which helps to shift the risk from below the breakout point within the area between the breakout point and the stop-loss, to above the breakout point and in the area between the breakout point and the cost of the trade.

Smart investors use binary option hedging to protect against breakout failure of some major currency pairs such as USD/CHF or the AUD/USD. Generally speaking, within the hour after breakout, both the aforementioned instruments test their breakout points. When placing a conventional stop-loss the trade may succeed if it is correctly placed which is nearly impossible to fathom as to how far below a breakout point a test may descend. This volatility often shakes out of the position before breaking out again shortly afterward.

In such a circumstance a binary option hedge is useful. Immediately after placing the Forex trades at the breakout points, a USD100 hedges can be placed. As a result, investors can completely cover up to USD70 of their losses when the breakouts are tested. A noticeable point to mention is that had the breakouts truly failed the investor would have exited with zero losses as the binary option trade would in rather than losing money if a stop loss was used instead. Given the fact that the breakouts succeeded after testing the breakout points, investors can look to some profits as soon as they make more than USD85 (the amount lost when the binary option fails)on the Forex positions.

It must be noted that not all brokers allow their investors to hedge. In such a scenario, it has proven to be advantageous that optionFair allows for its traders to invest in both sides of the asset being traded, in other words, hedging.

The advantage of this hedging strategy relies on the properties of the trader’s momentum. Since nearly all investors utilize stop-losses below the breakout points, testing the breakout point can be quite a risky proposition especially when trading below the breakout point where more and more stops are hit and the momentum builds on the selling side. The same is true after the breakout test, when the breakout occurs again. At this point most traders are aware that the breakout did not fail and re-enter with greater momentum. This helps us quickly recoop the $85 loss of the original trade. You can see this in the image provided, as well as in my previous posts using the GBPUSD.

In conclusion, by using binary option hedging we shift the risk from below the breakout to above. This allows us to take advantage of trader momentum which works against us when using a stop-loss and works for us when using binary option hedging.

Sophie is an editor with ForexPromos com a leading financial and investment portal for forex and binary options trading. With daily market analysis, currency technical and fundamental analysis and breaking business news, visit ForexPromos com to gain an insight into the forex, currency and binary options market

Article Source: EzineArticles com/expert/Sophie_Delhio/1151510

This little known index will make you easy money every day

January 9, 2018

The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) when used along with your moving average and Bollinger Bands will lead you to increased profits every day.

The CCI was developed as an indicator to identify trends and measures of the current price level relative to an average price level over a given period of time. As the indicator surge above or below the -100 or +100, this shows the start of an uptrend or a downtrend. A buy or sell trade can be executed to catch the beginning of the trend when the indicator crosses the hundred level.

Reversal

The indicator shows when it is in an overbought or oversold condition which the slope of the indicator turning into opposite direction, will often signal the start of a trend reversal. The gradient of the indicator also gives evident of the early momentum of the shift and the beginning of a trend in the making.

Double top or Double bottom

The indicator also works good with a price chart showing a double top or double bottom. By observing the crossing of 100 level and the slop of the gradient from 0 to +/-100, the appearance of double top and double bottom will help to trigger a buy or sell trade. This is more conclusive if happens in the overbought and oversold region (100 levels).

Trading within resistance and support

During low trading volume especially market close time where trading activities is at minimum, price that explicit side way movement will have CCI indication between -80 to +80 level. This is useful for scalping trading where few pips can be profited from currency moving sideways under this CCI indicator.

Mirror image of currency chart

CCI sometimes will be a mirror image of the currency trading chart itself. Especially when the high, low and close price are quite average and over time the movement of up and down are correspondently equal or close. Using this indicator can sometimes predict the price will go up after it touches the -100 line or the price will go down after it touches the +100 line. This allow trader to easily pickup trades to execute on an average trading hour daily.

CCI can be further used together with simple moving average and support and resistance level at a higher time frame. Experiment with various setups to achieve a high probability trading success rate. The major currency I used to trade using CCI are USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF.

Source: bestforexranking com

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I am currently hosting bestforexranking com which provides reviews, articles and strategies. Am giving away a free eBook (with 40+ Forex Trading strategies) by signing up to my email newsletter. Go get your free copy today.

2 killer indicators that will make you exponentially better

These 2 unorthodox but easy forex indicators can make you a significantly better trader.

The first indicator is the % Bullish.

It will tell you the involvement of big time investors that are currently in the forex market itself. When the overall % Bullish is less than 20%, prices are oversold and they are overbought when that number is over 80%.

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The second indicator is The Commitment of Traders report published by the CFTC

The ability to track the most successful traders is something that every trader should long for. What most don’t realize is that the report already exists and it is totally free! The Commitment of Traders report is published by the CFTC every other week and lets you know the holdings in the futures market and is extremely useful to all forex traders.The Commitment of Traders report will feature the positions of both hedgers and speculators alike. The difference in the two is that hedgers base their decisions on the protection of their investment and trends in the market, while speculators are trying to predict market trends and will usually end up letting their greed and fear take over their decision making.

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If you have not yet figured it out, trying to predict the market is very dangerous. This is the reason why speculators and hedgers are usually on different ends of the deal.The bulk of the time, the speculators will be in error in these situations and you are easily able to identify a profitable trend in the market. After that, you will have to rely on technical analysis to let you know if the trade is a go or no go. Using both of these free forex indicators together will but you one step ahead of most market traders and can play a significant role in your success as a forex trader.

About the author

To learn how to trade forex successfully using a simple, proven forex trading system, download my FREE 56-page ebook at forextradingpower . com now. The author, Daniel Su, is the founder of ForexTradingPower . com where you can get free premium forex trading tips and resources.

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What is the best time to buy and sell the market?

What is the best time to buy and sell the market?

Here are the top 3 factors that any trader must be aware of.

1. Moving averages

A lot of traders watch the moving averages for areas of support and resistance. Some use simple moving averages while others prefer exponential moving averages which are weighted towards more recent activity in the market. I can’t say that this is a reliable enough trading method for me to want to adapt it as my means of identifying support and resistance.

I do like to watch a 12 period exponential moving average (12ema) on any time frame though. It seems to act well as a region of balance between buyers and sellers and price activity does tend to hover around this moving average a great deal of the time. Any market that has traded well away from the 12ema though is probably getting ripe for a turn. It’s also very common to see a market retrace to the 12ema line then continue in the direction of the trend. Any strong breaks through the 12ema usually mean the trading will continue in that same direction.

2. Fibonacci based retracements

It’s part of every trader’s arsenal to know about Fibonacci based retracements. The most notable are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels although there are other retracement levels that are not based on Fibonacci such as 86.6% which is derived from the square root of three. We can find support at areas of old resistance and vice versa. This happens fairly often so it needs to be on a trader’s radar. It’s not a guarantee of course that all areas of support will become resistance but add this concept to your awareness when reading a chart. The past tends to repeat itself in one variant or another.

3. Gaps in the market

While not necessarily areas of support and resistance, gaps in the market can mark important points on a chart. There is a well known phenomena that gaps on a chart will sooner or later be filled. This simply means that price action will often trade into the area of the gap, effectively closing or filling it. The warning here is that sooner or later may mean much later so don’t expect this phenomena to be reliable on your chosen time frame. Failed attempts at closing the gap signal market weakness and you can expect a strong move in the opposite direction.

Probably due to the fact that we chart market activity in graphical format we are somewhat trained to think of support and resistance as being horizontal or parallel to the time axis. Support and resistance can also be seen in other ways if we break out of the horizontal mind-set. For example support and resistance are often found on the drawing tool known as Andrew’s Pitchfork. Also known as the median line this tool was reputed to have been the instrument whereby its creator amassed a large fortune from trading.

A forex trader’s best weapon is the long and diligent study of market behavior with particular emphasis on analyzing and forecasting where probable future areas of support and resistance may lie. Good luck and happy trading.

Article Support and Resistance in the Forex Markets is by BRUCE WILSON

Forex Fundamental Analysis for 2018

Using fundamental analysis to trade Forex can be very dangerous when it is not done right. Ironically, traders relying upon fundamental analysis rather than some form of technical analysis tend to lose money more quickly than if they just stuck with technical analysis. This seems strange and counter-intuitive, but it is true. In this article, I will explain why using fundamental analysis exclusively can be dangerous, then I will show how the right type of fundamental analysis can be used to make your trading better, if it is something you really want to use. I will focus on what the fundamental situation will likely be at the start of 2018. You certainly don’t need to use fundamental analysis to make money over the long-term in the Forex market, but it can help.

Why Mechanical Fundamental Strategies Perform Worse than Trend-Following Strategies

Fundamental analysis sounds like a sensible, conservative method to use to decide where to put your money. After all, if you were considering investing in a stock, you would feel good about performing due diligence on the company, checking its financial position, and being convinced that the economy was likely to grow over the time horizon of your investment. So, doesn’t it make sense to feel the same way about the country whose currency you are buying, even if your time horizon is shorter than that of a typical stock investment? Well, it’s a logical approach, but there are two immediate problems in applying this principle to Forex. Firstly, which fundamental indicators are you going to use to make your call on the fundamentals? Secondly, it seems clear that fiat national currencies are far less affected by economic fundamentals than stock markets are, so even if you pick the right variables for your analysis, they are not likely to be very useful. Currencies are not the “stock” of a nation, they are debt instruments issued by its central bank.

Let’s consider some of the most popular fundamental analysis indicators which can be applied to currencies:

  1. Fair Value: you consider the relative costs of a basket of goods in two different currencies, selling the one which seems overvalued, and buying the one which seems undervalued, hoping the values will merge. It is very logical, but it simply has not worked in recent decades. It completely discounts the fact that there are good reasons why goods and services are relatively more or less expensive in different countries.
  2. Interest Rate Differential: currencies with higher interest rates tend to attract more investment, meaning speculative money should flow from currencies with lower interest rates into currencies with higher interest rates. Therefore, it should be possible to profit from buying currencies with higher rates using currencies with lower rates. An added benefit of such a fundamental strategy is that the overnight fees charged daily by your broker should be low, or even positive in your favor, as they are based upon the market’s expectation of the future rates. The good news is that this strategy has been shown to generally produce a small positive edge. The bad news: the edge is small, and the strategy keeps you out of some great trades. It also tends to stop working during times of market turbulence. There can be strong, long-term price trends going against LIBOR rates for months without end. Furthermore, for some years now we have been living in an era of low interest rates, so the available differentials between the major global currencies are very small.
  3. Economic Growth: buy currencies with strong and/or increasing GDP numbers, and sell currencies with weak and/or falling GDP numbers. This sounds logical, yet there is no evidence it works as a standalone strategy.

Central Banks are Key

If typical fundamental approaches are flawed, what can you do? Well, a better fundamental analysis strategy is to be aligned with the positions of the currencies’ central banks. Consider the fact that any central bank can create as much supply of their currency as they want, and reduce a lot too, as well as (usually) having the power to set the currency’s interest rate. This is a lot of power to move the price. Unfortunately, central banks don’t put up signs saying “tightening” or “relaxing”, which would make this kind of strategy an awful lot easier! Yet it is possible to follow the central bank releases yourself, which are given monthly (in most cases), and to read intelligent commentary on them, to develop an opinion. You will probably require the intelligent commentary as even if you read the full texts of the central bank releases, unless you are very clear what you are looking for, you probably will not be able to come to a correct conclusion. Another approach which works well is to look for surprises in central bank releases. For example, at the time of writing, the Bank of Canada has just made it clear that they see a rate hike in January 2018 as less likely. This surprised the consensus, and the value of the Canadian Dollar continues to fall. It is normal for most central bank releases to move their currency, but when there is follow-though the next day instead of a reversion back to the mean, that can be a good sign that you have a fundamentals-driven price move going on which is likely to last longer.

Central Banks in 2018

A good starting point for a productive program of Forex fundamental analysis is to make a list of the major central banks, in order of importance, and to summarize their attitude towards their currency. Then it makes sense to check whether there are any trends which are matching any identified divergence between central banks. It is not an exact science, and it is important to realize that there are other major fundamental factors which can come into play. An excellent example is Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, the exact terms of which are still under negotiation. As Britain’s economy is highly dependent upon the terms of its trade with the European Union, the terms of that trade are going to affect the pound, with the pound advancing on a softer Brexit and falling on a harder one.

So here is my 2018 assessment of the currency stances of the important central banks (in order of importance), ranked by order of importance to the Forex market.

Federal Reserve (U.S. dollar) – tightening monetary policy, but concerned about the lack of inflation, meaning inflation rate data becomes important. If inflation is higher than market expectations, the USD should tend to rise on anticipation of more and faster future rate hikes.

European Central Bank (euro) – minor, very cautious tightening is possible in the shape of unwinding the balance sheet, but interest rates remain negative and inflation is almost non-existent. It is still hard to imagine rate hikes.

Bank of Japan (Japanese yen) – there is some economic growth, but it looks as if the BOJ is on autopilot as no tightening or rate hikes are expected throughout the entirety of 2018 and beyond. Inflation remains very weak.

Bank of England (British pound) – there is little economic growth, but the BoE seems set on a course of further tightening of monetary policy by hikes in the rate of interest, because the rate of inflation has climbed to a relatively high 3.1% annualized rate. Without the inflation, there would probably not be any hikes happening soon.

Swiss National Bank (Swiss franc) – this is a special case. As almost all major national currencies are extremely weak, the SNB maintains an extremely loose monetary policy with a negative interest rate of -0.75% to stop the Swiss Franc from appreciating as a safe-haven investment. The policy has succeeded in stabilizing the Franc, and this currency is an extremely dangerous bet. It has a strong tendency to revert to the mean and stay stable, rather as Gold has over recent years. Growth and inflation are extremely weak, so the SNB is determined to stop the currency from appreciating.

Bank of Canada (Canadian dollar) – GDP and inflation have been relatively healthy, with the interest rate also at a reasonable level of 1.0%, but recent concerns about a slowing of growth have staved off the likelihood of monetary tightening happening soon. This is one to watch carefully, but we might be seeing the start of a fundamentally-driven long-term weakening in the Canadian Dollar.

Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian dollar) – despite historically low interest rates, inflation and growth remain stubbornly low, and they seem to be taking a turn for the worse as poorer than expected trade data comes in. While it doesn’t look like we are going to see any weakening of policy, further tightening appears to be convincingly off the agenda.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand dollar) – growth is relatively healthy, though the GDP is still barely 1%, and the rate of inflation is marginally higher than the relatively high interest rate. The new government seem to be determined to pursue a balancing act of avoiding any real tightening while also avoiding significant loosening. All this suggests a somewhat weak monetary policy, although the market has been impressed by the nomination of a new Governor of the RBNZ who is expected to keep managing inflation as a high priority.

Conclusion on the State of Forex Fundamentals

There is no doubt that the global picture of the advanced economies listed above is one of a generally weak monetary policy, with little divergence in terms of growth, policy, or interest rates. This points to a dull Forex market, which is what we are currently experiencing. However, it can be said that fundamentally, the U.S. dollar currently looks relatively strong, followed by the euro. Continuing weakness looks most likely in the Canadian dollar. This suggests that the most fundamentally convincing Forex trades which match the technical picture are long USD/CAD, and possibly long EUR/CAD as well.

It is crucially important to only trade fundamental conclusions you might arrive at when they are matched by the technical picture. There should be a reasonably long-term trend in the direction of the fundamentals, or at least it should be clear that the price is continually failing to move against it. This is the best way to use fundamental analysis in Forex trading. Now, this would suggest that the trades best supported by a combination of fundamental and technical factors are likely to be long USD/CAD, long EUR/CAD, and possibly long USD/JPY as well. Fundamental analysis, just like technical analysis, requires constant review of the situation, which can change from month to month, so the current picture is not guaranteed to last throughout 2018.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.